Archive for the ‘Mining Sub-Sectors’ Category
Gold, Silver Producers stage big recovery.
Gold and silver haven’t made any progress for over a month now, and stocks in general have been in the doldrums, but precious metal producers have been earning money hand over fist, and their stocks have found some much-deserved traction.
From our index comparison page, here is a chart showing the outperfomance of gold producers (green) and silver producers (lavender) when compared to base metal producers (blue), which are more sensitive to economic downturns.

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Checking out the Solid Gold Miners list in Editors’ Picks, I see that even big miners like Newmont, Kinross, Newcrest, IAMGOLD, Centerra, Barrick and African Barrick are trading at 15x operating cash flow or less, even with their stocks way up. Going by 2011 cash flow, these figures are going to look even better, particularly for miners with a heavy silver component, as silver is much higher this year than last.
Gold & silver explorers & producers weather the storm
The increasing tendency for gold and silver to behave like safe-haven currencies instead of cyclical commodities has been a godsend for miners lately. On average, mining stocks have a higher correlation with broad stock indices like the S&P500 and FTSE than with metals prices, but when enthusiasm and demand for precious metals is at a fever pitch, as in the late 1970s to 1980, it seems that miners begin to distinguish themselves. I should note that the opposite is seems to be true at the other extreme – witness the 60% decline of the XAU Gold & Silver index from 1995-2000, while the S&P500 tripled.
Here’s a three-month view of our Base Metal Producer index vs. our Gold Producer index (you can play with more index comparisons here):

This month has not been kind to industrial resource stocks, since the broader commodity complex has been hit hard by traders anxious to unwind risk. For some perspective on how much unwinding has taken place, West Texas oil briefly traded under $80 this week, down from $114 this spring and $100 just three weeks ago:

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Dr. Copper is holding up a bit better, but is still down 14%:
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Not surprisingly, our Movers lists of best performing stocks over the past month are now dominated by precious metals companies. Here’s a snapshot, but you can see the whole list here and filter it by country or time frame:

Market contagion finally hits the miners.
Thursday was a sea of red across the board, as long trades were being unwound in every sector, resources not excepted. Our benchmark Mining Almanac Index of larger producers was down 6% for the day, compared to 5% for major indices like the Dow and S&P500. Sub-sector losses ranged from 4% in rare earths and zinc to 10% in heavy metals stocks. Gold producers declined 5%, which was a decent performance, all things considered.
On days like this, it’s interesting to check the movers page to see which stocks bucked the trend and managed to actually go up a lot. Here’s the top of that list:

Miners outperforming broad indices in a rough market.
Despite their general positive correlation with broad indices, the mining sector has held up very well despite a dismal couple of weeks for stocks in general. Gold approaching $1700 might have something to do with it, but even such industrial mineral sectors like base metals, rare earths and uranium have been stronger than the Dow, DAX and FTSE.dex, vs. the S&P500 over the last month.
GDX, the gold miners’ ETF, is up 7%, while the S&P is down 6%, a 13% outperformance for the miners:

Even downtrodden uranium stocks have caught a bid this summer:

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SITE TIP: Peruse & compare our mineral sub-sector indices here, and see which have been the strongest.
Base metal, iron, coal, rare earth stocks near 3-year highs
The entire minerals sector has performed very well in July, with precious metals stocks finally catching a bid, but industrial materials stocks have been the best performers of the year.
Here’s a chart of some of the strongest indices since the 2008 crash (pink: rare earths; purple: heavy minerals; blue: base metal producers; green: coal):
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Site tip: To compare indices in a single chart like this, go to http://miningalmanac.com/indices and select “compare” or just go to http://miningalmanac.com/indices/compare.
You can also compare any individual stock to the indices (or the gold price) by going to its pages and clicking on the “charts” tab:
Titanium is white hot this summer
In what has been a sideways market for most commodities, prices of titanium dioxide (TiO2 aka rutile) have doubled in private trading this year. Contracts are being settled in excess of $2500 per metric ton, up from $700 last year and $400 a few years ago. This pure white powder is favored as a color base for paints, pigments, plastics and high-quality paper, and supplies are very tight.
There are very few primary titanium producers or explorers, but two small-caps stand out in our database: White Mountain Titanium (WMTM on the OTCBB), with an advanced-stage exploration project in Chile, and Sierra Rutile (SRX on AIM), with a producing mine in Sierra Leone.
Their stock prices have reflected the situation in the rutile market, as they have defied the malaise that has effected many resource stocks lately:
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Site Tip: To search for just companies that focus on a particular mineral, or for which a single mineral accounts for the majority of their resource value, simply select “main mineral” in the drop-down filter on the filters page:
Rough spring: juniors give back much of fall’s gains
Bargain hunters should be thrilled, since there are some real values appearing in the market again. Many small stocks have retraced their entire 2010 rally, even as gold hovers over $1500 and silver holds $35. With the dollar still in the doldrums, commodity prices levitating, and interest rates near zero, something has to give.
A bit of fear has crept into the markets as a whole since May, but resource equities have been hit particularly hard, and the losses have been magnified for juniors and explorers.
Our gold explorers index, for instance, is down over 20% in 2011:
Site Tip: The best place to see which companies have become cheap is the Editor’s Picks section.
The lists refresh daily, taking into account the latest stock and metal prices.
The best peforming mining sectors
Sure, gold stocks have done great lately, but these are sub-sectors with even better performance over the last 12 months:
Zinc
Silver Explorers
Heavy Minerals
Rare Earth Minerals
Iron Explorers
Gold producers actually have been laggards, despite what is setting up to be an awesome year for cash flows and profits.
See all the sub-sector indices here: http://miningalmanac.com/indices







